A Narrative of Progress? Five Reflections on the World Today
Hi Everyone,
I was in my living room earlier this week watching the rain pound the window. As is characteristic of November, it was dark at 5:30 pm and I was miserable. I remembered a clip from a TV show the West Wing in which President Bartlett (played by Martin Sheen) had summoned the British Ambassador to the United States, Lord John Marbury to the White House for his expertise on an emerging conflict between India and Pakistan. In his assessment Marbury cites Revelations:
And I looked and I beheld a pale horse, and the name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.”
Not to paint an overly pessimistic picture, but as I look out at the world I was struck by how apt this quote was. In a speech at the convocation ceremony of the School of Public and International Affairs at Columbia University, in 2006 His Highness the Aga Khan remarked that,
“Historically, one of the most powerful resources for any culture has been the sense that it is heading somewhere, that tomorrow will be better than today, that there is reason to embrace what I would call “a narrative of progress.”
Certainly there is hope, but how long can this narrative of progress hold? Here are 5 reflections on the world today, albeit from a lesser observer of world affairs.
I promise you that at the end of this post, there is a moment of fun. Not all is doom and gloom!
5 Observations of The World:
1. Erosion of a Common Language, Truth and Understanding
Cracking Foundations of Meaning and Common Values: There is a growing lack of consensus and willingness to agree on common values, ethics and principles which have both governed our relationships with each other, and which have allowed the development of collective consensus on the fundamental realities from which we approach the world. What once was fact, has become fiction, what was indisputable, is now controversial. Orwell 80 years ago in 1944 wrote:
“A certain degree of truthfulness was possible so long as it was admitted that a fact may be true even if you don’t like it…. There is some hope, therefore, that the liberal habit of mind, which thinks of truth as something outside yourself, something to be discovered, and not as something you can make up as you go along, will survive. But I still don’t envy the future historian’s job.”
The loss of truth has created a whole host of primary, secondary and tertiary consequences, a loss of faith in media, expertise and institutions. A world in which reality is increasingly subjective, leading to a fragmentation of community, a lack of civility, polarisation, manipulation, resentment, disillusionment, a loss of faith and trust in the educational enterprise, and the loss of competence.
2. Prioritisation of Problems: Existential Threats
Global Priorities Remain Skewed: Beyond the day to day on-goings of the world, be it conflict in Ukraine, the attacks and bombings in Gaza and Lebanon, or the crisis in Sudan the spectre of global crises has not receded. The threat of climate change, the threat of nuclear war, the risk of a new and deadly global pandemic, all loom large yet there has been little global action. During the COVID-19 pandemic much was made of the world’s ability to pull together. The research, innovation and cooperation required to research, produce, and disseminate vaccines was the result of immense coordination, never before seen in human history. It was proof that when will is met with action there is hope for change. There was a glimmer of hope in humanity’s realisation of its own fragility.
This glimmer has faded. Mpox for example now threatens Central Africa and what has the reaction been from the West? The Globe and Mail reported “Canadian health officials say they have no plans to share Canada’s stockpile of the mpox vaccine with countries in Africa that urgently need millions of doses to fight a fast-spreading outbreak of a dangerous new variant of the virus. At least 10 million doses of mpox vaccines are needed across Africa, where the viral illness has caused more than 450 deaths in the past eight months, but only about 200,000 doses are currently available.”
To place this in a somewhat different perspective, I leave you with this: In August, the WHO reported that it required 87.4 million USD from September 2024 to February 2025, to stop and contain the current outbreak of mpox. An article in the New York Times, noted that in August, 2024 “Open AI’s monthly revenue was 300 million, up 1,700 percent since the beginning of 2023, and the company expects about $3.7 billion in annual sales this year.”
3. Transactional Approach to Relationships
The Consequences of Transactionalism: We have seen a transactional approach to relationships. Relationships are no longer based on principles and common values but utility. A Security Brief by the Munich Security Conference, entitled Standard Deviation: Views on Western Double Standards and the Value of International Rules, explains that, “transactionalism is an effective response to the systemic inequalities that persist in global politics and a remedy for institutionalised double standards. For countries that see little chance of overcoming the inequalities that systematically disempower them an opportunistic approach is a promising way to level the playing field.”
With the rise of transactional thinking and action comes a loss of long-term strategic thinking, an abandonment of core and common values, a sense of mutual accountability and responsibility, and the increasing dominance of a short-term mindset focused only on short-term gain. In this absence of a rules based international order chaos emerges and with it opportunity and incentive for more nefarious, forces and players as well as non-state actors who seek to capitalise on the moment. The absence of rules and lack of enforcement also emboldens those who now encounter no serious consequence for crossing red-lines.
4. A Global Re-Alignment
Multipolarity and Shifting Landscapes: We are in the midst of a shift in global realignment. An era of relative stability brought on by a bipolar world is giving away rapidly to one in which political, economic, cultural and moral frames of reference are increasingly multipolar. The process of this re-alignment will not be smooth, and the end result far from certain. In a piece for Chatham House, “New Global Alliances Leave the West Behind” former Canadian diplomat Arif Lalani explains:
“As the West clings to 20th century institutions, the rest of the world reflects a new geography, creating institutions for, and perspectives of, prosperity and security. This will require the Euro-Atlantic world to be diplomatically and intellectually uncomfortable in order to continue to shape the global order for its citizens and private sector. Economic power has reverted to Eurasia stretching from the Gulf States in West Asia to Central, South and East Asia.”
Dani Rodrik, professor of international political economy at the Kennedy School has written that the new world order holds potential in the world’s emerging middle powers.
Middle powers include India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and Nigeria – all large economies that have a significant footprint in the global economy or in their regions. They are far from rich…but they also have large, consumption-oriented middle classes and considerable technological capabilities. The combined GDP (in purchasing-power-adjusted terms) of the six countries mentioned above already exceeds that of the US and is projected grow by 50% by 2029…. Although middle powers like India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and Nigeria are unlikely to form a bloc of their own, they are well-positioned to lead on many pressing issues. In doing so, they can offer a vision for the world economy that does not depend on either America’s or China’s power and goodwill.
What remains clear from both these observations is that the axis of the world’s power is shifting, south and east. The re-alignment is under way, and this will alter not only economic frames of reference but also cultural, ethical and moral - the consequences of which we have yet to understand.
5. Demographic Transformation
Demographic Transition: There is a profound transformation taking place across the world, but rarely mentioned or covered in headlines. It is subtle but its effects will touch all facets of life, the social, political, cultural, economic and environmental life. The world’s population will grow to 9.7 billion by 2050 before peaking to 11 billion by the end of the century. At the same time, declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy is resulting in a growing proportion of older people in society. The consequences of this growth and demographic will manifest itself in a multitude of expressions. Half of global population growth will come from just nine countries. By 2050 people 65 and older will make up nearly 40% of the population in Europe and East Asia. The world’s wealthiest countries will have the oldest populations while the regions of sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Asia, will have one of the youngest.
Youth Bulge: For many countries with youthful populations, the “demographic window of opportunity” opens between now and 2050. As fertility declines from high to low levels, countries experience a window of opportunity for sustained economic growth. The Global Youth Development Index shows many countries are experiencing a “youth bulge” with adolescents and young adults making up a third of the population. This offers hope of a “demographic dividend” as young people contribute towards economic growth and well-being. However, fewer young people will be responsible for supporting greater numbers of older people.
There are antidotes, and reasons for hope in each one of these observations, and we will dig into this in following editions.
A Career in Old Age:
I saw a fascinating video this week. It’s a video of Chad Smith (age 63), drummer for the Red Hot Chili Peppers playing the drum track for Dua Lipa’s (age 29) song, “Break Your Heart.” Chad Smith is one year younger than my father, and plays the drums with the passion of an 18-year old. I only hope that I have the same passion for my work at the age of 63 as he does in this video. I urge you to give it a watch, for I noticed three things:
Passion: The first was the passion, joy and enthusiasm which with he plays, it’s clear from his facial expressions, eyes and movement just how in love with his profession he is. It’s clear that he is in “the zone” for the entire track.
Professionalism: He plays with a sense of professionalism. Chad Smith is a highly accomplished musician, a master of his craft, has been the lead drummer for the Red Hot Chili Peppers since 1998, and been ranked as one of the world’s greatest rock and alternative drummers. Yet here is playing a backing drum track for 29 year old Dua Lipa. He explains in his comments that during a recording session he only wishes to produce what the recording artist needs and will put his own style, and influence aside. The sense of humility that this requires is inspiring.
Future of Work: The video does away with the phrase “too old to work.” I can only hope to work with the same joy, excitement and energy at the age of 63. The concept of retirement, seems more an of invention of society and culture. Retirement in my mind is not a prize to be won after years of toil, nor a permanent vacation to be enjoyed after a lifetime of work. I will always take purposeful, meaningful and engaging work as long as I can obtain it.
I leave you with a quote from George Bernard Shaw on the joys of life:
“This is the true joy in life, being used for a purpose recognized by yourself as a mighty one…. I want to be thoroughly used up when I die, for the harder I work, the more I live. I rejoice in life for its own sake. Life is no brief candle to me. It is a sort of splendid torch which I have got hold of for the moment and I want to make it burn as brightly as possible before handing it on to future generations.”
Thanks for reading.
FK